Date: February 04, 2013
Venue: C.P. Romulo Hall, NEDA sa Makati Bldg., Makati City
The research presentation was given by Dr. Dan Steinbock, an expert on international business and international relations among the leading advanced and large emerging economies. He cooperates with think tanks, and leading universities in the US, EU, China and India, ASEAN, the Gulf, Americas, and Africa. He now also monitors some 20 other potential emerging economies, including the Philippines. Recently, he has explored the US elections and fiscal crisis, the Eurozone debt divides, and the probable actions of the new Chinese leadership.
His presentation focused on the uncertainty of the global growth prospects. In Europe, despite some gains, the sovereign debt crisis continues to hover over the region. In the aftermath of the U.S. presidential elections, a comprehensive fiscal cliff deal has remained elusive, which translates to complicated negotiations over the new debt ceiling, medium-term debt adjustment, and the Bush-era tax cuts. Meanwhile, Japan is coping with its third lost decade. Despite their strong future potential, large emerging economies are not immune to the challenges in the West. While Chinas growth has been slowing down, recovery is in full swing. In India, growth has decelerated significantly and political uncertainty is growing, despite solid future potential. In Russia, growth prospects seem dimmer as long as global growth is lingering. While Brazil has coped with its challenges with relative success, it continues to struggle with inflation risk and higher interest rates.