Date Published:
Nov 21, 2017
Category:
Discussion Papers
Focus Area(s):
Code:
DP 2017-30

The main driver of long-run economic growth is total factor productivity. Among the basic sectors, namely, agriculture, industry, and services, inclusiveness of economic growth depends most importantly on agriculture. This study provides growth projections for the Philippine agriculture based on growth in productivity differentiated by basic sector, using a computable general equilibrium model.

Scenario analysis finds that the current policy thrust for agriculture of subsidizing capital cost slightly accelerates growth of agriculture, but slows down overall growth by reducing capital formation. Meanwhile, maintaining productivity growth for industry-service at trend, notwithstanding weak growth of agriculture, suffices to reach government plan targets. Productivity growth of agriculture impacts strongly on agriculture itself, but not on the industry-services sectors; conversely, productivity growth in the latter strongly impacts on itself and the gross domestic product, but not on agriculture. The study suggests that policies emphasize the acceleration of productivity growth in the long run across all sectors, but especially in agriculture. Currently, forward and backward linkages of agriculture matter little to economic growth, increasing growth interactions across the basic sectors.

Citations

This publication has been cited 3 times

In other Publications
  1. Galang, Ivory Myka. 2017. AMPLE-CGE Model: User guide. Discussion Papers DP 2017-41. Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
In the Media
  1. Gatpolintan, Leslie. 2017. PH urged to boost agricultural productivity for inclusive growth. Philippine News Agency.
  2. Gatpolintan, Leslie. 2017. PH urged to boost agricultural productivity for inclusive growth. Philippine Canadian Inquirer.


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