Fiscal Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Philippine Debt Sustainability

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The Philippine government’s debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ballooned from 39.6 percent in 2019 to 54.5 percent in 2020 and 60.5 percent in 2021. In this Policy Notes, the authors explain that the current debt episode differs from other periods of large fiscal deficits. While past debt episodes were deep-rooted or self-inflicted, the current high debt was caused by a large exogenous shock (i.e., the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic). Based on their projections, the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio will decline after 2024, provided there are no policy reversals or structural breaks and no new substantial debt. Still, they urge the government to continue spending to jumpstart the economy, as fiscal stimulus is needed on items with multiplier effects to address the risks of scarring, such as erosion in human capital.