Date Published:
Feb 27, 2023
Policy Notes
PN 2023-05

The Philippine government’s debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ballooned from 39.6 percent in 2019 to 54.5 percent in 2020 and 60.5 percent in 2021. In this Policy Notes, the authors explain that the current debt episode differs from other periods of large fiscal deficits. While past debt episodes were deep-rooted or self-inflicted, the current high debt was caused by a large exogenous shock (i.e., the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic). Based on their projections, the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio will decline after 2024, provided there are no policy reversals or structural breaks and no new substantial debt. Still, they urge the government to continue spending to jumpstart the economy, as fiscal stimulus is needed on items with multiplier effects to address the risks of scarring, such as erosion in human capital.


This publication has been cited 3 times

In the Media
  1. Celis, Angela. 2023. MANAGEABLE, SUSTAINABLE: NG debt ratio to drop after ’24. Malaya Business Insight.
  2. Jocson, Luisa Maria Jacinta C. . 2023. Debt-to-GDP ratio seen to ease after 2024 — PIDS. BusinessWorld.
  3. The Financial District. 2023. PIDS: Debt-to-GDP ratio seen to ease after 2024. The Financial District.

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